Ag Market Commentary

Corn is trading UNCH to fractionally lower this morning. Futures were 2 1/2 to 3 cents lower on Friday, but May futures were still up 2 1/4 cents for the week. Private exporters reported an export sale of 114,048 MT of corn to unknown under the USDA daily system, for 2019/20 MY delivery. CFTC indicated that on March 24 managed money spec funds were net short 108,549 contracts for corn. That was their largest net short in 15 weeks, and came about mostly via long liquidation. FOB prices for DDGS were $311/ton on 03/26, which was 9.9% higher wk/wk. International Grain Council estimates the World corn crop will be 4.3% higher yr/yr to about 1,160 MMT. Brazil’s Safras projected corn output at 105.8 MMT, well above USDA’s March estimate of 101.0 MMT. EPA has delayed the mandatory spring switchover to lower volatility gasoline, in order to use up excess stocks of winter gas. They also have delayed implementation of the court ruling on RFS waivers, arguing that litigation is ongoing and not complete. --- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Soybeans are 6 to 8 cents per bushel higher this morning as Argentine crush plants continue to be hampered by trucking restrictions. Futures were mixed on Friday, but May beans were 19 cents higher for the week. Soybean meal futures closed the week $2.10/ ton lower, with a Friday gain of 20 cents/ton for May contracts. Meal futures are up $3.70/ton this morning. May bean oil futures closed Friday with a 35 point gain, which added to the 121 point gain wk/wk. Private exporters reported a sale of 163,290 MT of soybeans to Mexico for 2019/20 delivery. In the weekly update from the CFTC, soybean spec traders were 2,444 contracts net short on 03/24. That is less short by 28,202 contracts wk/wk. Soybean meal spec trading also saw short covering and funds were 22,999 contracts more net long. Their 39,099 contract net long is the largest long since October 2018. Managed money soybean oil traders flipped to net short on Tuesday, their net long lasted 27 weeks. Brazil’s Foreign Trade Department forecasts the monthly soybean exports will hit 9.5 MMT which would be a 12% increase yr/yr. The IGC is projecting the world soybean crop will balloon to 366 MMT vs. 341 MMT the previous year. --- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Wheat futures are 4 to 5 cents per bushel higher this morning across all three US markets. CBOT wheat was 2 1/4 cent higher on Friday, with May up 32 cents on the week. HRW futures were down a half penny, but closed 19 3/4 cents higher wk/wk. May MPLS wheat gained 5 3/4 cents on the last trade day of the week, securing a weekly gain of 19 cents/bu. The Commitment of Traders report with data from March 24 showed that in a bout of short covering, CBOT spec traders were back to net long. Managed money OI in CBOT wheat was down 116,191 contracts over the last 5 weeks. Managed money was 7,950 contracts less net short wk/wk in KC wheat; to 5,356 contracts. MPLS wheat spec traders were less net short wk/wk but still net short 16,307 contracts. US wheat export commitments are still running 1.1 MMT ahead of year ago. --- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



The last trade day of the week had April cattle futures down the expanded limit, and they will trade with expanded limits again on Monday. April cattle futures were still $2.30 higher Fri/Fri after 4 limit move days out of five! Feeder cattle futures were down the expanded limit in the front months. May feeders posted a $2.67 gain for the week. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was up another $1.94 to $130.44 on 03/26. Cash cattle trade was $117 to $120.50 last week, with the bulk at $120. Dressed trades were $188 to $190. The Commitment of Traders report on Friday showed cattle spec funds flipped net short for only the 4th time on record (going back to June 2006). Managed money was 1,608 contracts net short in feeder cattle, which was 1,112 contracts less short wk/wk. Afternoon boxed beef prices were mixed, with the Chc/Sel spread tighter to $10.46. Choice boxes were $252.84 cwt., down $0.73. Select boxes were $242.38 cwt., up $0.21. USDA estimated the week’s FI cattle slaughter at 676,000 head. That is 57,000 head more that the same week last year. YTD slaughter is estimated at 8.012 million head, 203,000 head higher yr/yr. Estimated YTD beef production through 03/28 is 6.634 billion lbs, that is up 4.8% yr/yr. Total red meat production is up 10.9% yr/yr. --- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Lean hog futures were down the expanded limit in the May and June contracts, April hogs were a nickel off limit. Friday’s trades erased the week’s early progress as April hog futures were $3.12 lower wk/wk. The CME Lean Hog Index for March 25th was $66.17, up another $1.05, still ignoring the bearish futures action. The National Average Afternoon Base Hog price was $58.07, down by 77 cents on Friday. CFTC data from Tuesday showed lean hog spec traders were 23,130 contracts net long. Managed money OI is down 41.6% over the last 5 weeks to 80,142 contracts. USDA estimated weekly FI hog slaughter at 2.754 million head. That is 226,000 head more than the same week last year. YTD slaughter is currently 5.0% above last year’s pace. USDA estimated YTD pork production through 03/28 at 7.174 billion lbs, which is 5.4% higher yr/yr. Increased exports are only absorbing part of that increase. --- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Cotton futures are trading 42 to 116 points lower as global governments continue to restrict movement and urge that retail purchases focus on food and medicine. The dollar index is stronger in early morning trading overseas, and the US stock market futures are cautiously higher. Cotton futures were down 112 to 155 points on Friday. May futures were 249 points lower from Friday to Friday. The weekly CoT report showed managed money cotton funds were 15,255 contracts net short on 03/24. That is the largest net short in 23 weeks for that group. Managed money OI was down 3,576 contracts wk/wk to 53,551 contracts. Spec trader OI as of Tuesday was the lowest it’s been since 2012. The 03/26 Cotlook A index was back up 50 points to 63.55 c/lb. The AWP for cotton is 44.99 through Thursday. The LDP is 7.01. --- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management






Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
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Phone: 402-697-3623
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